Biodiversity dynamics after human arrival on islands: are islands at an ecological crossroad?
Sandra Nogué  1@  , Ana M. C. Santos  2@  , Lea De Nascimento  3, 4@  , Janet Wilmshurst  3@  , Erik De Boer  5, 6@  , Simon Haberle  7@  , Robert Whittaker  8@  , José María Fernandéz-Palacios  4@  , Kathy Willis  9@  , Manuel Steinbauer  10@  
1 : School of Geography and Environmental science  (UoS)
University of Southampton, University Road Southampton SO17 1BJ -  United Kingdom
2 : Department of Life Sciences, University of Alcalá
28805 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid -  Spain
3 : Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Landcare Research
Manaaki Whenua, 54 Gerald Street, Lincoln 7608 -  New Zealand
4 : Universidad de La Laguna
Island Ecology and Biogeography Group, Faculty of Science, Biology Section, Avda. Astrofísico Francisco Sánchez, s/n, Aptdo. 456, La Laguna 38200, Santa Cruz de Tenerife -  Spain
5 : Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics
University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam -  Netherlands
6 : Institute of Earth Sciences Jaume Almera  (ICTJA-CSIC)
Lluís Solé i Sabaris s/n, 08028 Barcelona -  Spain
7 : Australian National University
CAP-CHL, 9 Fellows Road, ACT 2600 -  Australia
8 : School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford
Oxford OX1 3QY, UK. -  United Kingdom
9 : Department of Zoology
University of Oxford, OX2 7LE -  United Kingdom
10 : Geozentrum Nordbayern, Department of Geography and Geosciences, Friedrich-Alexander University of Erlangen-Nürnberg  (FAU)  -  Website
Loewenichstr. 28, 91054 Erlangen -  Germany

Human activities are increasingly dominating ecological systems and are often considered the main drivers for ecosystems change. The need to quantity the speed of human impacts in ecosystem dynamics have caused a controversial debate on natural baselines and the start of the Anthropocene. However, it is now increasingly evident that hardly any “natural” baselines are available for timescales with sufficient available data (e.g. thousands of years). Oceanic islands are rare exceptions, many of which have been sheltered from human impacts due to their isolation from the continent. Oceanic islands thus provide repeated, complex systems with an excellent opportunity to quantify the direct effect of human impacts after their arrival on the islands (pre-human baseline) on the local vegetation. Here, we tackle this challenge using palaeoecological datasets of fossil pollen time-series covering the past 5000 years. We gathered these datasets from Neotoma database and other published sources. We selected oceanic islands that together covered large gradients of: latitude, elevation, size, distance from continent, and human arrival times. We calculated a “system state metric” using the pollen time series and a combination of Bray Curtis similarity analysis and ordination analysis (NMDS). We also applied a breaking point analysis to calculate whether the vegetation composition changed abruptly or otherwise followed a constant transformation over time. Preliminary results, showed that in many islands there is a vegetational compositional change that seems to start around human arrivals. However, we found that in other islands major vegetation changes may happen without human presence on the island. These independent records on multiple island ecosystems will inform a novel model framework to simultaneously quantify ecosystem dynamics and structure prior to human arrival (and its associated impacts), and also those that occurred after human arrival; this will allow identifying the main changes that humans have caused in island ecosystem processes.


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